Resiliency

At the population level, PCC now exists in 13 populations. Currently, four populations were estimated to be high, five were estimated to be moderate, and four were estimated to be low, including the two remaining populations that are in the low condition but were excluded from future scenario analysis because of inadequate data (Table 5.6).

Table 5.6. Summary of resiliency of Panama City crayfish populations under current conditions and future scenarios. See Table 3.8 Chapter 3 for condition descriptions.
Region
Population Name
Current
Year
Status Quo
Intermediate Development
High Development
West Shriners Moderate 2030 Low Low Low
2050 Low Low Low
2070 Low Low Low
Airport-north Low 2030 Low Low Low
2050 Low Low Low
2070 Low Low Low
Airport-south Moderate 2030 Low Low Low
2050 Low Low Low
2070 Low Low Low
Talkington Moderate 2030 Moderate Moderate Moderate
2050 Low Low Low
2070 Low Low Low
City of Lynn Haven Low 2030 Low Low Low
2050 Low Low Low
2070 Low Low Low
Industrial Low 2030 Low Low Low
2050 Low Low Low
2070 Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation High 2030 Moderate Moderate Moderate
2050 Moderate Moderate Low
2070 Moderate Moderate Low
College Point Low 2030 Low Low Low
2050 Low Low Low
2070 Low Low Low
East Highpoint Moderate 2030 Low Low Low
2050 Low Low Low
2070 Low Low Low
Deerpoint High 2030 High High Moderate
2050 High High Moderate
2070 High Moderate Moderate
231-north Moderate 2030 Moderate Moderate Low
2050 Moderate Low Low
2070 Moderate Low Low
Star Avenue High 2030 High High High
2050 High High High
2070 High High Moderate
231-south High 2030 High High High
2050 High High High
2070 High High High

All of the future scenarios are predicted to have a negative impact on the species resiliency during the 50 year time horizon. In the worst case (i.e., High Development scenario), only one population remained in high condition in 2070 (231-south). Across all three scenarios, only the 231-south population remained unaffected by development and in high condition. Additionally, the Star Avenue population remained in high condition except under the High Development scenario and the Deerpoint population remained in high condition under the Status Quo scenario. This result is likely due to the large size of the area supporting these populations, and that all three of these populations are in the eastern part of the range. The Deerpoint population faces the added threat of sea level rise, losing an additional 21 acres of habitat to this threat, although this loss is not predicted to be large enough to change the high or moderate condition of the population. Talkington and St. Joe are the only populations not in low condition on the western portion of the range under all scenarios, due largely to the easements that support these populations. However, the surrounding development isolates even these populations under longer timeframes and the High Development scenario. The Airport-north population was the only other population affected by sea level rise, and the addition of this threat to this already low condition population would ensure it remains in low condition.