Predicting Habitat Elements

We used three habitat elements, water quality and quantity, herbaceous ground cover, and suitable habitat, to predict future changes in habitat for PCC (Table 3.7 in Chapter 3). For all habitat elements, we provide a rangewide assessment of change as well as change in the habitat supporting each of the 11 populations. As with current conditions, we used a proxy measure to predict landcover that would disrupt water quality and quantity. Based on the updated urbanization layer from SERAP for each point in time, we calculated the total acreage in the developed and unsuitable habitat landcover types and the percent of the habitat in these two landcover types.

To predict presence of herbaceous ground cover, we relied on the size of the protected area supporting the population (i.e. easement), if there was a management agreement in place for the protected area. For the moderate category, we also considered if the current landowner conducted canopy opening activities, such as timber harvesting. To be considered in high condition, the protected area had to be > 15 acres and have a management agreement.

For suitable habitat, we calculated the total acres of primary and secondary soils in natural landcover types that remained. Based on the updated urbanization layer from SERAP for each point in time, we calculated the total acreage in natural landcover types with the appropriate soils just, as we did to calculate current conditions (Table 5.2).

Table 5.2. Change in landcover across the range of the Panama City Crayfish under the three future scenarios.
Scenario
Year
Developed
Suitable Habitat Remaining
Status Quo 2030 22722.4 10304.4
2050 23920.1 9452.7
2070 25040 8609.5
Intermediate 2030 23950.7 9453.4
2050 25974.6 7977.2
2070 27332.3 6851.1
High 2030 25563.1 8272.8
2050 27632 6641.1
2070 28899 5575.9
Regular, medium, and high development scenarios
Figure 5.1. Probability of future development in 2030, 2050, and 2070 showing growth under the status quo (purple), intermediate (orange), and high development (red) scenarios.

Scenario 1: Status Quo Development

We considered the development most likely to occur as our status quo. Based on the SERAP model, this was development with a >80% probability of occurring (Figure 4.4).

Rangewide PCC loses between 1401.1- and 3096.0 ac of habitat as developed land increases from 20220.6 currently to 22722.4 in 2030 and 25040.0 ac in 2070 under the Status Quo scenario. This loss, fragmentation, and degradation of habitat is predicted to reduce the number of resilient populations in high or moderate condition from nine currently to five by 2050 (Table 5.3). This loss of resiliency comes from both a reduction in habitat elements as well as the effects of isolation and drift on the populations themselves.

For redundancy and representation, a reduction in redundancy by loss of all but one resilient population in the western group by 2050 is predicted. The St. Joe population would be the only remaining population representing the western group. In the eastern group, four resilient populations are predicted to persist through 2070.

Scenario 2: Intermediate Development

We considered development with a moderate potential to occur as our intermediate scenario. Based on the SERAP model, this was development with a >30% probability of occurring (Figure 4.4).

Rangewide PCC loses between 2252.1 and 4854.4 ac of habitat as developed land increases from 20220.6 currently to 23950.7 in 2030 and 27332.3 ac in 2070 under the Intermediate Development scenario. This loss, fragmentation, and degradation of habitat is predicted to reduce the number of resilient populations in high or moderate condition from nine currently to four by 2070 (Table 5.4). This loss of resiliency comes from both a reduction in habitat elements as well as the effects of isolation and drift on the populations themselves.

For redundancy and representation, a reduction in redundancy by loss of all but one resilient population in the western group by 2050 is predicted. The St. Joe population would be the only remaining population representing the western group. In the eastern group, three resilient populations are predicted to persist through 2070.

Scenario 3: High Development

We considered the least likely development to occur as our worst case scenario. Based on the SERAP model, this was development with a >0% probability of occurring (Figure 4.4).

Rangewide PCC loses between 3232.8 and6129.6 ac of habitat as developed land increases from 20220.6 currently to 25563.1 in 2030 and 28899.0 ac in 2070 under the High Development scenario. This loss, fragmentation, and degradation of habitat is predicted to reduce the number of resilient populations in high or moderate condition from nine currently to three by 2070 (Table 5.5). This loss of resiliency comes from both a reduction in habitat elements as well as the effects of isolation and drift on the populations themselves.

For redundancy and representation, a reduction in redundancy by loss of all resilient populations in the western group by 2050 is predicted; not a single resilient population would remain representing the western group. In the eastern group, three resilient populations are predicted to persist through 2070. Within this group for example, the 231-north population moves from moderate to low condition and even the large Star Avenue population moves from the high to moderate condition because of where development is predicted to occur (Figure 5.1).

Zoomed in projected development
Figure 5.2. Probability of future development in 2030, 2050, and 2070 showing growth under the status quo (purple), intermediate (orange), and high development (red) scenarios at two populations more susceptible to this factor.

Table 5.3. Resiliency of Panama City crayfish populations under Future Scenario 1 – Status Quo. See Table 3.8 in Chapter 3 for condition descriptions. Changes from Current Conditions are highlighted in red and marked with an asterisk.
Population Name
Year
Inbreeding coefficient
Population Isolation
Predicted Population Conditions
Freshwater Quality & Quantity
Herbaceous Ground Cover
Suitable Habitat
Predicted Habitat Conditions
Predicted Overall Condition
Shriners 2030 Moderate Low Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Airport-north 2030 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low
Airport-south 2030 Moderate Low* Moderate Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Talkington 2030 Moderate Moderate Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low Moderate
Industrial 2030 Moderate Low Moderate* Low Moderate* Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation 2030 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* High Moderate Moderate* Moderate*
Highpoint 2030 Moderate Low Moderate High Low* Low Low* Low*
Deerpoint 2030 High Low Moderate* High Low* High High High
231-north 2030 Moderate Low Moderate* Moderate* Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Star Avenue 2030 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
231-south 2030 High Low Moderate* High High High High High
Shriners 2050 Moderate Low Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Airport-north 2050 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low
Airport-south 2050 Moderate Low* Moderate Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Talkington 2050 Low* Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Industrial 2050 Moderate Low Moderate* Low Moderate* Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation 2050 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* High Moderate Moderate* Moderate*
Highpoint 2050 Moderate Low Moderate High Low* Low Low* Low*
Deerpoint 2050 High Low Moderate* High Low* High High High
231-north 2050 Moderate Low Moderate* Moderate* Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Star Avenue 2050 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
231-south 2050 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
Shriners 2070 Low* Low Low* Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Airport-north 2070 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low
Airport-south 2070 Low* Low* Low* Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Talkington 2070 Low* Moderate Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low Low*
Industrial 2070 Low* Low Low Low Moderate* Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation 2070 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* High Moderate Moderate* Moderate*
Highpoint 2070 Moderate Low Moderate High Low* Low Low* Low*
Deerpoint 2070 High Low Moderate* High Low* High High High
231-north 2070 Moderate Low Moderate* Moderate* Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Star Avenue 2070 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
231-south 2070 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High

Table 5.4. Resiliency of Panama City crayfish populations under Future Scenario 2 – Intermediate Development. See Table 3.7 in Chapter 3 for condition descriptions. Changes from Current Conditions are highlighted in red and marked with an asterisk.
Population Name
Year
Inbreeding coefficient
Population Isolation*
Predicted Population Conditions
Freshwater Quality & Quantity
Herbaceous Ground Cover
Suitable Habitat
Predicted Habitat Conditions
Predicted Overall Condition
Shriners 2030 Moderate Low Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Airport-north 2030 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low
Airport-south 2030 Moderate Low* Moderate Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Talkington 2030 Moderate Moderate Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Moderate
Industrial 2030 Moderate Low Moderate* Low Moderate* Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation 2030 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* High Moderate Moderate* Moderate*
Highpoint 2030 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* Low* Low Low* Low*
Deerpoint 2030 High Low Moderate* High Low* High High High
231-north 2030 Moderate Low Moderate* Moderate* Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Star Avenue 2030 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
231-south 2030 High Low Moderate* High High High High High
Shriners 2050 Moderate Low Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Airport-north 2050 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low
Airport-south 2050 Moderate Low* Moderate Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Talkington 2050 Low* Moderate Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Industrial 2050 Moderate Low Moderate* Low Moderate* Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation 2050 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* High Moderate Moderate* Moderate*
Highpoint 2050 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* Low* Low Low* Low*
Deerpoint 2050 High Low Moderate* High Low* High High High
231-north 2050 Moderate Low Moderate* Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Star Avenue 2050 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
231-south 2050 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
Shriners 2070 Low* Low Low* Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Airport-north 2070 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low
Airport-south 2070 Low* Low* Low* Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Talkington 2070 Low* Moderate Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Industrial 2070 Low* Low Low Low Moderate* Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation 2070 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* High Moderate Moderate* Moderate*
Highpoint 2070 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* Low* Low Low* Low*
Deerpoint 2070 High Low Moderate* High Low* Moderate* Moderate* Moderate*
231-north 2070 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low* Low* Low*
Star Avenue 2070 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
231-south 2070 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High

Table 5.5. Resiliency of Panama City crayfish populations under Future Scenario 3 – High Development. See Table 3.8 in Chapter 3 for condition descriptions. Changes from Current Conditions are highlighted in red and marked with an asterisk.
Population Name
Year
Inbreeding coefficient
Population Isolation*
Predicted Population Conditions
Freshwater Quality & Quantity
Herbaceous Ground Cover
Suitable Habitat
Predicted Habitat Conditions
Predicted Overall Condition
Shriners 2030 Moderate Low Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Airport-north 2030 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low
Airport-south 2030 Moderate Low* Moderate Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Talkington 2030 Moderate Moderate Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Moderate
Industrial 2030 Moderate Low Moderate* Low Moderate* Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation 2030 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* High Moderate Moderate* Moderate*
Highpoint 2030 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* Low* Low Low* Low*
Deerpoint 2030 High Low Moderate* High Low* Moderate* Moderate* Moderate*
231-north 2030 Moderate Low Moderate* Low* Moderate Low* Low* Low*
Star Avenue 2030 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
231-south 2030 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
Shriners 2050 Moderate Low Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Airport-north 2050 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low
Airport-south 2050 Moderate Low* Moderate Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Talkington 2050 Low* Moderate Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Industrial 2050 Moderate Low Moderate* Low Moderate* Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation 2050 Low* Low Low* Low* High Moderate Moderate* Low*
Highpoint 2050 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* Low* Low Low* Low*
Deerpoint 2050 High Low Moderate* High Low* Moderate* Moderate* Moderate*
231-north 2050 Moderate Low Moderate* Low* Moderate Low* Low* Low*
Star Avenue 2050 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
231-south 2050 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High
Shriners 2070 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low*
Airport-north 2070 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low Low* Low
Airport-south 2070 Low* Low* Low* Low Moderate Low Low Low*
Talkington 2070 Low* Moderate Moderate Low* Moderate Low Low Low
Industrial 2070 Low* Low Low Low Moderate* Low Low Low
St Joe Mitigation 2070 Low* Low Low* Low* High Moderate Moderate* Low*
Highpoint 2070 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate* Low* Low Low* Low*
Deerpoint 2070 High Low Moderate* High Low* Moderate* Moderate* Moderate*
231-north 2070 Low* Low Low Low* Moderate Low* Low* Low*
Star Avenue 2070 Moderate* Low Moderate* Low* High High High Moderate*
231-south 2070 High Low Moderate* Moderate* High High High High