Future Scenarios

This section explains how the stressors associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation from residential and commercial development discussed in Chapter 4 will influence the 3Rs for the PCC throughout its current known range using an approximately 50 year time horizon. We describe three scenarios, a status quo (i.e., >80% probability of development), moderate (>30% probability of development), and high (any probability of development under SERAP), projecting possible future development using the SERAP model at three time points, 2030, 2050, and 2070 (Jantz et al. 2010; Terando et al. 2014). We describe the predicted effects of the development on loss and fragmentation of suitable habitat rangewide and on each of the known populations and draw inferences about the population health based on the work of Duncan et al. (2017) (Table 3.7 in Chapter 3). We excluded two populations (College Point and City of Lynn Haven) because we only had adequate data from the remaining 11 populations for our scenario analysis.

5.1.1. Predicting Population Factors

5.1.2. Predicting Habitat Elements