Chapter 5. Future Conditions

In previous chapters, we have considered Panama City crayfish life history characteristics, identified the habitat and demographic requisites needed for viability, and estimated the current condition of those needs through the lens of the 3Rs (Chapters 2 and 3). Next, we reviewed the factors that may be driving the historical, current, and future conditions of the species (Chapter 4). In this chapter, we predict the species’ future conditions to inform us of the viability of the species. While our ability to predict this is limited due to limited demographic data, we use the genetic information about how isolation has influenced genetic health of each population to predict how populations respond to the stressors habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation from residential and commercial development. Our analysis is limited to three future scenarios on how these stressors to the species may drive changes from current conditions (Table 3.8 in Chapter 3).

Future Scenarios