Potential Future Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Development

To predict potential future changes related to urban growth, we used layers from the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP; from the Biodiversity and Spatial Analysis Center at North Carolina State University; 60m grain), a modification of the SLEUTH Projected Urban Growth model (Jantz et al. 2010; Terando et al. 2014). SERAP is a project that aims to identify the parameters in global and regional models that are most likely to affect the Southeast region’s climate and local landscape dynamics with the goal of providing decision makers with information about low-probability, high impact climate extremes through downscaled models and threats analysis. We used these products to map future predicted changes in urbanization in 2030, 2050, and 2070 (Figure 4.2). For example, suitable habitat (in terms of acres of core and secondary soils) within the range of PCC are predicted to be reduced from 17254 ac to 13607 ac by the year 2070 with at least 80% probability, an approximately 21% loss.

Projected development to 2070
Figure 4.2. Projected future urban and suburban growth to the year 2070 with 80% probability.